Here's what it will take to win Super Bowl LVIII

Stephen Knox|published: Wed Feb 07 2024 13:52
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Football fans across the globe, be sure to enjoy the build-up to Super Bowl LVII, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Another NFL game of significance will not be played until Sept. 5. That Thursday evening will be in the midst of an American presidential election campaign, and we should all try to avoid thinking about that until absolutely necessary.

For the next several days, let’s all enjoy everything that comes with Super Bowl week. The anticipation of commercials, celebrities hawking goods over the airways, and two weeks of countless words and airtime spent analyzing a single game. Most of you will miss it come party convention season.

Besides avoiding inevitable pain, this is the only time the country has to analyze a single matchup. Autumn Weekends are loaded with games. Only people whose job is to watch those matchups can find the time to watch enough to comment on what they have seen from dozens of teams.

Outside of those gearing up for the new spring United Football League, Sunday, Feb. 12 is all the football left for a while. Here are 10 keys to Super Bowl LVIII that allow people to spend just a bit more time with NFL football until it goes away for a while.

Chiefs: Offensive line penalties

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Jawaan Taylor began the season being singled out for play that was against NFL rules. Terry McAulay was campaigning for the referees to flag Taylor for lining up offsides throughout the Kansas City Chiefs opening matchup against the Detroit Lions on NBC.

McAualy’s outrage resulted in stills and clips of Taylor’s alignment going viral. The Chiefs’ right tackle went on to be flagged more times than any other offensive lineman in the league. Mekhi Becton was the O-Lineman with second-most flags and he received seven fewer than Taylor.

Not only do players and coaches have time to prepare for the Super Bowl, but so do referees. Their eyes will be zeroed in on Taylor all throughout the game. Getting called for a penalty is not the worst error that he can make, but at the wrong time, it can cost the Chiefs the game. In crucial moments, Taylor had better keep his hands tight and alignment perfect.

Chiefs: Bring back the big plays

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When Patrick Mahomes first became the starting quarterback for the Chiefs in 2018, he played like a Jugs machine with artificial intelligence. He won the MVP as a first-year starter. Tyreek Hill was on the team then, and big plays were a common occurrence.

The next season, against the 49ers in the Super Bowl, it was a 44-yard pass to Hill when the Chiefs were down 10 points that changed the game. Since that season, opposing defenses have been terrified to give up big plays to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Chiefs’ longest pass of the AFC Championship Game went to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 32 yards in the air sealing the game late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs cannot play smashmouth football as well as the 49ers. Isiah Pacheco will bang out some yards, but the Chiefs will need a play like that 44-yarder to Hill back in 2020 to become back-to-back champions

Chiefs: Dropped passes

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The Chiefs have dropped more passes than any team in the NFL during the 2023 season. Anyone who has paid semi-close attention to the league is well aware that their pass catchers have spent much of the year putting the team in bad spots. Travis Kelce dropped three passes in a wild-card matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

Fortunately, for the Chiefs, that game was played during one of the coldest evenings in NFL history. While there was no significant advantage in overall talent, no team from Florida was going to beat the defending champs in that weather.

The Chiefs have been better about not letting balls slip through their fingers, especially since benching Kadarius Toney, but a drop in a crucial moment would result in receiving errors being what defines the Chiefs’ 2023 season. A regular season that ended with their most losses — six — since Alex Smith was the starter and they still found their way to the Super Bowl

Chiefs: Running game

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Isiah Pacheco was a monster in Super Bowl LVII. The Philadelphia Eagles had arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL last season, but it was Pacheco who was the leading rusher on the day. He totaled 76 yards on 15 attempts.

The Chiefs have relied on him throughout the postseason. Pacheco tallied 24 rushing attempts against the Dolphins and the Ravens. His yards per attempt left something to be desired in both of those games, but he did keep the opposing defense honest.

Against a 49ers run defense that has struggled throughout the postseason, Pacheco’s violent carries will have to be a part of the game plan. That and Mahomes’ timely first-down scrambles can demoralize a defense, or at least extend drives and keep the opposing offense on the sidelines.

Chiefs: In Spags we trust

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That has been a team motto, and it is well deserved. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense with the New York Giants slowed down the 2007 New England Patriots’ offense long enough to allow Eli Manning to heave a game-saving third-and-11 pass that was caught by David Tyree — who retired two years after that catch.

Spagnuolo has been the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs since their Super Bowl Championship 2019 season. These days, he has a unit to match his ingenuity.

The Chiefs defense finished the regular season ranked seventh in DVOA. The Ravens made two charges at the goal line in the AFC Championship Game, and turnovers in those moments are why the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl.

49ers: Make people miss in space

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Yes, Kyle Shanahan is an offensive guru. However, if his offensive players were not able to evade defenders and create big plays, Matt Ryan would never have won MVP, and the 49ers would not be in their second Super Bowl in four years.

49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy led the league in yards after catch per completion. While he was never afraid to push the ball downfield, his explosive teammates have the ability to take one of those crossing routes 30-plus yards on any play.

Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle, hell, even fullback Kyle Juszczyk caught a toe-tapper in the NFC Championship game. The skill-position players will have to continue to make big plays against a strong Chiefs defense in the Super Bowl.

What will best help the 49ers offense is for them to be slippery in the open field. Every extra yard they gain by shaking away from a Chiefs defender has a chance to build frustration. A frustration, and/or fatigue, could lead to a 10-yard pass turning into a 40-yard score in the fourth quarter.

49ers: Purdy decision-making under duress

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There are stats that make an argument for Purdy as the best passer in the NFL for the 2023 season. He was accurate all over the field, and as a bonus, revealed a capability to run the football that can swing a playoff game.

He significantly improved on his 2022 season in which he was forced into action as a third-string quarterback. Purdy played like a bonafide NFL starter from Week 1 through the NFC Championship Game, but as well as he has played, he has shown some vulnerabilities in his second NFL season.

His turnover-worth pass rate is in the bottom quarter of the NFL. Also, his seven interceptions under pressure is the fifth-most in the NFL, including the playoffs. The Chiefs have a much better defense than both of the 49ers’ previous playoff opponents, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, so Purdy will have his biggest challenge yet.

49ers: Defensive line, wake up!

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This was supposed to be one of the best units on the team. Nick Bosa won Defensive Player of the Year last season. A defensive line with Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw added Javon Hargrave during the offseason. During the 2023 season, Chase Young was added by trade.

The Chiefs recorded the second most pressures while, with the highest-paid defensive line in the league, the 49ers tallied only the 12th most. San Francisco has allowed at least 350 total yards against both the Packers and Lions. Bosa is the only 49er who recorded more than one pressure in both games. Against the Lions, only three 49ers defenders recorded a pressure.

A defensive line that was paid more than $60 million this season had better get its act together on Sunday. If this highly decorated unit is unable to make Mahomes uncomfortable, or keep Pacheco from running wild, the offense may not get enough opportunities to score.

49ers: Jake Moody

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With Robbie Gould retiring during the offseason, the 49ers were forced to scramble to salvage their special teams. Lacking a dependable placekicker could cost a championship contender crucial points from September through February.

The 49ers took a huge swing to replace the 41-year-old Gould, by drafting Jake Moody — a 2021 Lou Groza Award winner — out of Michigan in the third round of the 2023 draft after he did not win that award in his final collegiate season.

Moody’s rookie season was imperfect in some crucial moments. Of the four attempts he missed during the regular season, two of those were between 40-49 yards. In the playoffs, Moody has gone 1-3 from that distance.

That distance is where championships are won or lost. A placekicker misses a 50-yarder, and the public understands that is a long attempt. However, while that 40- to 49-yard kick is a tough one, it is also just short enough to get accused of choking in a championship moment.

49ers: Game management

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Shanahan is considered one of the greatest offensive minds in NFL history. Since coordinating an offense that Matt Ryan quarterbacked to an MVP, he has been both revered and imitated. He also called the plays for that Atlanta Falcons offense that gave up a 28-3 lead in less than 24 minutes of game time during Super Bowl LI.

He was criticized for not calling enough run plays in the second half of both that game, and the 49ers’ Super Bowl LIV against the Chiefs in which a 10-point fourth-quarter lead turned into an 11-point loss.

Once again, Shanahan gets to match up against the Chiefs with a loaded team. He has enough good players to lead the 49ers to their first Super Bowl Championship since before Michael Jordan’s second three-peat with the Chicago Bulls.

But he needs to remember that he has two ball carriers who make more than $10 million per year — McAffrey and Samuel — as well as Elijah Mitchell and Juszcyzk who can also do damage on the ground.

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