Every team in the NFL playoffs, ranked

The NFL playoffs are officially set. All the ups and downs, laughs and years, improbable comebacks and unprecedented collapses, none of those mean anything now. All that’s left is a four-week sprint to immortality.

The 14 teams remaining have put together what feels like one of the tightest playoff pictures in recent memory. Looking at that Super Wild Card schedule, it really feels like the first time we’ve had a slate where any outcome feels possible. That being said, somebody’s gotta win the damn thing. Let’s rank the best teams remaining in the hunt for Super Bowl LVIII.

Never count a Mike Tomlin-led team out. The Pittsburgh Steelers have astonishingly never had a losing season in his 17 years as head coach. Hell, a wild weather report of wind and snow might even swing things in this run-heavy, defensive-led team’s favor come Sunday. On paper, though, this is the weakest roster in the postseason. The Steelers are working with by far the worst quarterback situation — Mason Ruldoph is the starter — of any playoff team. He’ll be equipped with two solid running backs and an impressive yet disgruntled receiver room. The defense, while seven in EPA/Play this season, is banged up. Losing T.J. Watt to an MCL sprain is a death knell for this season, but they get a pat on the back for making it this far.

Somebody had to win the NFC South; I’m glad it was Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield, if anything, is extremely entertaining. Mike Evans is always good for a highlight-worthy play. The defense is mostly comprised of the elite group that won a Super Bowl three years ago. The Buccaneers just aren’t great. They benefitted from playing one of the easiest schedules in the league and won the worst division in football. They get the benefit of having a higher ceiling than Pittsburgh, but that’s about it.

The reigning NFC Champions shouldn’t be down this badly. Philadelphia started its season 10-1. Jalen Hurts and Jason Kelce were revolutionizing short-yard running with the Tush Push. Having to replace both Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon wasn’t easy, but the Eagles were atop the NFC and looked like one of the best teams in the league. Then they dropped five of their last six games. Now the Eagles are in shambles. Matt Patricia is calling defensive plays as an attempted momentum shift. A.J. Brown is organizing escape rooms for emergency team bonding exercises. The defense is loaded with injuries and the offense is overly reliant on a thin group of players. The Eagles can still make a run, but this version of the Eagles is in really rough shape.

The youngest team in the NFL has moved on from Aaron Rodgers about as well as any team could be expected to move on from a three-time MVP quarterback. Jordan Love looks like the heir apparent, closing his first regular season as the starter with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight games. The receiving corps, while young, has been fast and dynamic, elevating Green Bay to the fifth in the league in EPA per Dropback. If the defense wasn’t bottom-10 in the league by EPA/Play, this team would almost be “nightmare matchup” status.

The Los Angeles Rams have always managed to thrive off the stars-and-scrubs model, landing big-name veterans in trades and filling out the rest of the roster with late-round draft picks and margin signings. This year’s been a bit different. The Rams still have star power – Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp – but the marquee is relatively barren. Instead, those late-round picks have stepped up in a major way. Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua broke both the rookie receptions and receiving yards records, while second-year fifth-rounder Kyren Williams finished third among all backs in rushing yards. The combination has led to an interesting team, but not an especially great playoff team. The defense is still unremarkable sans Donald, and the offense has its limits.

Houston, we are ahead of schedule. Most thought DeMeco Ryans would be able to turn around the Texans in some capacity. But in Year 1, C.J. Stroud all but officially received the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, DeMeco Ryans — despite the competition from Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland — should be Coach of the Year, and the Texans locked up the AFC South for the first time since 2019.

Stroud has turned Nico Collins into a top-10 receiver in the league and developed one of the most explosive passing attacks with relative unknowns. The defense, led by Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, and Jalen Pitre, has an extremely solid core but isn’t quite ready to make a legitimate impact. Stroud’s rookie performance alone is good enough to make Houston competitive in any playoff game, but the Texans’s early arrival puts their roster at a disadvantage against true contenders.

Cleveland is the most unique team on this list. Its defense kicked off the season at a historic pace and finished as one of the best in the league. Amari Cooper reminded us he’s still a top-five receiver, and the Browns expertly navigated the season-ending loss of Nick Chubb. If it weren’t for the carousel at quarterback, the Cleveland Browns would be one of the most formidable teams in the playoff conversation. Luckily for the Browns, they’ve seemingly found their best option of the season in 38-year-old Joe Flacco — who turns 39 on Jan. 16 — of all people. With the defense getting a bit healthier heading into the postseason, the Browns (yes, seriously) should be able to give any team they face a really tough game.

You obviously can’t discount a team with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce on it. Steve Spagnuolo is also flexing a masterclass of defensive development and execution previously unseen in Kansas City. The Chiefs, by DVOA, have never had a defense this good in the history of the Mahomes-Reid era, and it’s all being done on a shoestring budget. 

It’s just that the rest of this offense is so bad. The Chiefs lead the league in drops. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are having two of the worst seasons of any Chiefs receiver of the Mahomes era. Jawaan Taylor leads all individual players – offense or defense – with a whopping 17 penalties. Even Kelce and Mahomes are coming off some of their worst regular seasons in years. The Chiefs are as vulnerable as they’ve ever been, but the fact they still sit in the top half of these rankings shows just how high their floor is.

The feel-good team of the season has never been in a better position to go on a Super Bowl run. Lions offensive coordinator and head coaching candidate Ben Johnson helped Detroit put up its first top-five offensive DVOA season since the stat was introduced in 1981, off the back of the career rejuvenation of Jared Goff and an elite young corps in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. The defense, which hasn’t been good in nearly a decade, has finally made a complete turnaround in one year. They’re also getting healthy at the right time, too, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Alim McNeil returning from IR just in time for the postseason. The Lions have to get through a real test in Stafford’s first game back at Ford Field – a game LaPorta has an outside chance of playing in – but the vibes have never been better in Motor City.

At its best, Miami is elite. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane are the most explosive skill position group in the NFL. Mike McDaniel has turned Tua Tagovailoa into a machine and has Hill annually vying for 2,000-yard seasons. Jevon Holland-Jalen Ramsey-Xavien Howard can be one of the best secondary trios in the league, and the Fins’ defensive line is bone-crushing. At their worst, though, the Dolphins just can’t get over that hump. Steve Spagnuolo used McDaniel’s once-lethal short pre-snap motions against the Dolphins in Germany, turning the Tyreek kickstarter into a snap timing signal. The teeth have been taken out of this pass rush with injuries to Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Additional dings to Waddle and Mostert have slowed down this group. The Dolphins deserve their flowers, but the Dolphins are the most unproven contenders on this list.

Pro: The Dallas Cowboys, at their best, have been one of the most explosive and entertaining football teams in the NFL this season. Dak Prescott is having an MVP-caliber season. CeeDee Lamb is in the midst of a career year. Not only did Dallas survive the season-ending loss of Trevon Diggs, but replacement corner DaRon Bland also set the record for pick-sixes in the process. Dallas ranks second in offensive EPA/Play and fourth in defensive EPA/Play, meaning they should be one of the best-equipped teams to make a Super Bowl run.

Con: Dallas has failed to live up to any decent opponent its faced this season. Dem Boyz got throttled by the 49ers, split their division series with the Eagles, and dropped games against the Bills and Dolphins. The best team Dallas beat all year is Detroit, stealing the win off of a botched referee decision. Oh, and lest we forget, the Cowboys haven’t made an NFC Conference Championship since 1995.

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! A cliche, sure, but Buffalo embodied that phrase this year. ESPN Stats & Info gave the Bills a 0.1 percent chance to make the No. 2 seed heading into their Week 13 bye. Buffalo then strung together five straight wins with victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins to win the AFC East for the fourth straight season. Josh Allen is playing the most Josh Allen season of his career, leading the league with 41 combined touchdowns and finishing second with 18 interceptions. Buffalo’s defense is getting healthy at the right time, adding cornerback Kaiir Elam and unsung hero defensive tackle DaQuan Jones back from IR. If Buffalo ever had a road to its first-ever Super Bowl victory, it’s this.

About as good a roster as one can legally construct in the salary cap era. Say what you want about Brock Purdy, but the sophomore seventh-rounder has orchestrated the best version of Kyle Shanahan’s offense to date. Does it help to have All-Pro talent at running back, tight end, and receiver? Absolutely, but Purdy’s dealt all season long, and it helped the 49ers secure the league’s best offense by both DVOA and EPA/Play. The Niners’ defense has the most vaunted front seven in football, with one of the deepest defensive line rotations in the NFL. Losing Talanoa Hufanga means San Francisco’s secondary pretty much all comes down to Charvarius Ward and some unproven talent, but the pressure gets taken off the secondary when Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Chase Young are putting the pressure on.

There was a point this offseason when Lamar Jackson wanted out of Baltimore. The Ravens did everything in their power to keep him – a new OC in Todd Monken, new receiving talent in both free agency and in the draft, and a new contract. It’s all worked just as well as anyone could have hoped. Baltimore already had one of the league’s most elite defenses and one of the game’s best kickers of all time. Now you pair that with an explosive offense and an MVP season out of Jackson, and you get the best team in football. If John Harbaugh’s claim that tight end Mark Andrews could return from an injury ankle some time this postseason is true, then the Ravens might be a Super Bowl lock.