Five players primed to contend at the 2024 PGA Championship

Five players primed to contend at the 2024 PGA Championship

Though 156 golfers are heading to the great sports city of Louisville, Ky., for this week’s PGA Championship, the game is currently ruled by a handful of elite players. You know them on a first-name basis: Scottie. Rory. Brooks.

We could be in for an all-time clash as we set out to forecast five players likely to contend at the second major of the year.

The prohibitive favorite: Scottie Scheffler

He’s stepped away from the limelight for a few weeks while awaiting the birth of his first child, but in case anyone at home has forgotten, Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer in the world. Scheffler is simultaneously a machine and the PGA Tour’s model of work-life balance; if there’s any rust for him to knock off, he’ll have that out of the way by Thursday.

Scheffler has won four of his last five starts, a run that includes The Players Championship and the Masters; his lone miss was a T2 in Houston. This means sportsbooks will offer him at impossibly short odds not worth taking, but any discussion of straight-up PGA Championship contenders has to start with the World No. 1.

The drought-buster: Rory McIlroy

Could this have shaped up any better for McIlroy? He’s taking his nearly 10-year major drought to Valhalla Golf Club, the site of his last major victory. He’s pulled his entire game together -- the driving, irons and short game are all hot. And he storms into the PGA Championship on a two-tournament winning streak.

Fine, discount the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event if you want, but that win clearly did something for McIlroy’s confidence. He was the best player at the Wells Fargo Championship this past week, never mind that Xander Schauffele led each of the first three rounds. Have we finally reached the week, 10 years in the making, where McIlroy will slay his major demons?

The LIV Golf ringer: Brooks Koepka

In the decade since McIlroy last lifted a major championship trophy, Koepka has won five, the most of anyone in the sport. He’s dominated the PGA Championship in particular, claiming the Wanamaker in 2018 and 2019 before arriving at Oak Hill last year with a LIV Golf membership card and beating out Scheffler and Viktor Hovland.

There’s no denying that LIV has collected some of the most talented golfers in the world, including recent major champions Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith. When the majors roll around, none of them can hold a candle to Koepka. As a bonus, Koepka is in top form like Scheffler and McIlroy, having won the most recent LIV event in Singapore.

The door-knocker: Max Homa

This spot was originally supposed to belong to Schauffele, who told reporters at the Wells Fargo that he’s “had a few knocks on the door, and I just tell myself to keep knocking.” Then McIlroy left him the dust Sunday, leaving me wary about whether he’s ready to handle the pressure of a major championship weekend. You might also consider Ludvig Aberg to take his turn after his runner-up finish at the Masters, but the unidentified knee issue that led him to drop out of the Wells Fargo gives me pause. 

Instead, here’s someone else knocking louder and louder. Homa followed up his first major top-10 (T10 at the 2023 Open Championship) with his first top-five, a T3 showing at Augusta. The door will open for Homa soon -- maybe this week.

The dark horse: Byeong Hun An

The PGA Championship produces a greater variety of winners than any other major, elite players and obscure names alike. It often comes down to recent form and course fit, two elements An has working in his favor.

Three of An’s five top-10 finishes this season have come at signature events, including third place at the Wells Fargo, so he’s been able to hold his own against strong fields. Valhalla is a par-71 exceeding 7,600 yards, with seven of its 11 par-4 holes measuring longer than 450 yards. That won’t intimidate An, who ranks top-five on the PGA Tour in driving distance and top-12 in approach shots from 175-200 yards out.

One tiny obstacle to overcome: An has never won on the PGA Tour. Then again, did that stop Shaun Micheel in 2003?